The fate of the Ethiopian ruling party, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) has been a subject of discussion. Established by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front in the late ’80s, the party, comprising of four ethnicity-based affiliates, has controlled the country for almost two decades. After the removal of the principal and founding members of the party from the scene and the reconstruction of the government last year, the future direction and strategy of the fragile ‘patchwork’ coalition were put into question. In fact, two of the coalition members, the Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM) and the Oromo People’s Democratic Organization (OPDO) have already changed their names and content of their discourse.

As the internal blocs battle for control and core positions of power continue, questions are being asked how the tensions would be ultimately resolved and what kind of party system will eventually emerge. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s answer to the question seems to be fusing and merging EPRDF into one single party. He has been for months using discreet intraparty meetings to push his position and he is reportedly considering changing the party’s name. According to Addis Maleda, a weekly Amharic newspaper, the party would be rebranded as “Ethiopian Prosperity Party”, even if this is not yet confirmed by any official source.

Long time coming

Transforming the EPRDF’s ethnically formed parties into a unitary party is not an entirely new initiative; it has been in the pipeline for the past decade since initiated by the late Prime Minister Meles Zenawi. “I don’t know why they found it so difficult to make it happen,” says Aregawi Berhe, head of the Tigray Democratic Coalition Party (TAND).  “They have been saying that for many years. It should have been realised in two or three years. But if the time is ripe for it now, why not, it is a welcome move, as it could give strength to the party, he adds.

Each of the four parties has not been equal in the coalition, a fact that still seems to pose a problem for the merger. The individual, group and interest representation in the EPRDF has always been a continuous issue.  The selection of a particular individual for membership has been dominated by two parties, TPLF and the Amhara National Democratic Movement (ANDM) at the early stage. It was, for example, only three years later that the Oromo People’s Democratic Organization (OPDO) joined the EPRDF. After a sixteen-year guerrilla war against the military regime and seizing control of the country in 1991, the EPRDF over the years gave certain regional political parties affiliated status in order to gain legitimacy and authority. From the liberation movement, the EPRDF has transformed into a powerful, dominant party that has fused with the state, even though its flawed leadership undermined the party’s capacity to govern competently and finally brought it to point of collapsing.

The election of the upstart Abiy Ahmed, a member of OPDO, as a party leader and as Prime Minister in April 2018 has marked a historic leadership turnover and the end of TPLF dominance and rubber-stamp political theatre that have decided the leadership in the past.  At the 11^th EPRDF congress held in Hawassa few months later, Abiy was re-elected as the coalition’s chairman, when the decision to form a single party was passed, on the grounds that “the merger will allow all states of the country to have proportional representation in the affairs of the federal government while ensuring self-administration at the state level,” according to the Ethiopian Herald.

What exactly the merger signifies for the present and future of the party is not yet clear as the ins and outs of the proposal are not out yet. Yet analysts suggest that, among others, the shape of the new political entity would not be determined by the number of seats each party holds but by the respective strength of their ideas, and the individual, group and interest representation would not based on ethnic quotas, as it has been the case in the party’s history. “It will definitely play the role of toning down ethnic politics and pulling down the nation to the center. I strongly believe this is what Abiy is doing. This is a strong possibility,” says Ephrem Madebo, the former head of Ginbot 7’s political affairs.

Ezekiel Gebissa, a history professor at Kettering University, who started by saying this should be a party’s internal affairs but with the stakes high for both the party and the nation. “In order for the merger to happen, the party has to change its current programmes, which I understand would be based on Medemer (Amharic term for synergic unity) philosophy. The party has to come up with its own policy, founding principles, which is tantamount to creating a new party,” he says.

Private party meetings

For the moment, a series of private intraparty meetings are being held in the individual party’s headquarters in Bahir Dar, Adama, Hawassa and Mekele. Though the Amhara Democratic Party (ADP) reportedly approved of the merger, the Oromo Democratic Party, the party that has emerged considerable political force, is still engaged in negotiations and there are divisions among party members about the issue, according to reports. The talk of the town has it that the issue even has become a source of simmering tension for the two former allies, Abiy Ahmed and Lemma Megersa.  But the most vocal protest of the merger has come from the northern member of the coalition, TPLF, even though it was the first initiator of the idea. In its official statement issued a few days ago, the party stated there will be no mergers “as far as TPLF is concerned.” The Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples’ Regional State (SNNPR) has not yet reacted, probably occupied with preparation of the Sidama referendum.

For Ezekiel, whether the merger could be realised in light of the current situation is questionable, unless the medemer philosophy makes some kind of miracle. “What the merger represents, in reality, is not even clear. If indeed it happened, does that mean that someone other than ADP would be allowed to administrator the Amhara region? Does that mean someone from TPLF is going come to administrator in Aweday?” he asks.  Ezekiel adds that it doesn’t make sense for the parties to seek unification before the scheduled election.

For Aregawi Berhe, the reasoning behind TPLF’s position is not based on ideological consideration but rather to stick with attacks on the Abiy administration. “It is as if they are saying we are not in charge now and it should not take place under this leadership.” If the merger is realised as planned, for regional parties like that of Afar, Somalia and Gambella, this is a win-win, Ephrem told Ethiopia Observer. “A strong national party platform helps all parties, and gives all parties equal chance for everything that currently is limited for EPRDF,” he argues.

But he says whether the project would succeed or not depends on what comes out of the OPDO camp. “Anything could happen in between depending on how OPDO and other state and non-state actors see the merger,” says Ephrem.

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