Saturday 21^st of November 2020 was Saint Michael’s day in the Ethiopian calendar and the 12^th day of the month of Hidar, in the year 2013. This was the 102^nd anniversary of the Hidar Beshita, the “Disease of November”, known globally as the “Spanish Flu”. Addis Ababa was as usual on that day covered in smoke with every neighbourhood burning rubbish, a practice started on St Michael’s day in November 1918. The amazing endurance of this custom is a testimony to the power of tradition which has been given renewed meaning in COVID times. In the morning I heard remarks that the bonfires would sweep away COVID like it did with the Hidar Beshita. 

In November 2020 what are the parallels between COVID and the global pandemic a century earlier, and how is COVID affecting young people in Ethiopia today?  A report just published by Young Lives shows that COVID has been affecting livelihoods, increasing educational and gender inequalities and diminishing wellbeing across the four countries studied: Ethiopia, India, Peru, and Vietnam. The headline findings show that rising food prices, increased household expenses, falling incomes, interrupted education, and shifting job patterns are typically impacting disproportionately young people living in rural areas and in the poorest households, with families turning to more traditional gender roles in times of stress and many young people reporting high levels of anxiety and depression.

Before turning to the main findings of COVID effects on incomes, employment, mental health and household work in Ethiopia, here is a brief overview of the 1918 influenza showing how much more devastating that pandemic was.

Hidar Beshita, November 1918: the global ‘Spanish’ Flu

The influenza came to Ethiopia from the coast probably brought from Aden by steamer to Djibouti and then by railway to Addis Ababa.  There was a first wave from April 1918 which was misdiagnosed as typhus or smallpox. The second wave from August 1918 was much more serious and as the Ethiopia church scholar Aleqa Kinfe Hadisu put it “spread like a forest fire in the grassland”.

Up to ten thousand people are said to have died in Addis Ababa alone as recorded much later by Emperor Haile Sellassie in his autobiography, representing up to a fifth of the then population. On some days over a hundred people were buried in a single church graveyard. There was a shortage of gravediggers and no more available spaces, so shallow graves were dug, and some were buried on top of other graves, and later corpses were left in abandoned houses. Aleqa Kinfe reported that “nobody bothered to bury the dead by the roadside, they simply walked by”.There was a story of a man who dug a grave and when he came back it had already been used by someone else.  There were also acts of kindness: when a mother who came with a dead child was helped to bury her child by others who had come to bury their relatives.

There was no weeping and mourning. Some of the dead were thrown in ditches or streams leading to concerns about water and air pollution, as noted later by the British Minister Wilfred Thesiger who postponed returning from leave until the epidemic was over. Aleqa Kinfe recalled that “dogs and vultures ate corpses by day and hyenas by night”. Food became scarce and prohibitively expensive as peasants feared coming to the town. Shops were closed, pharmacies had no supplies, police, and courts stopped functioning, and postal and telegraphic services were suspended. The capital was deserted, apart from funerals by day and thieves by night.  Many people shut themselves in their homes and refused to receive visitors and entry to the palace Gebbi, was forbidden. Others fled the capital including the Egyptian Patriarch Abuna Matewos, the Regent’s cousin, Ras Kassa Hailu, and the city Mayor, Kantiba Wesene ZeAmanuel, who was summoned back to restore order but later succumbed and died. There were also rumours that Empress Zewditu was about to move to Ankober. There were also signs of solidarity as people were said to be reconciled with enemies without the need for intermediaries.

One night in the month of Hidar there was a lot of shooting said to be to dispel the evil spirits. After the climax about the time of Hidar Mikael, the epidemic miraculously burnt itself out very rapidly by the end of the month, and Aleqa Kinfe recorded that it was widely believed that this was due to the intervention of Our Lady Mary.  That year in many areas peasants who had been unable to produce food were exempted from paying taxes. Soon after the epidemic became known as YeHidar Beshita, “the disease of the month of Hidar”.

COVID in Ethiopia today

The above summary clearly shows that COVID has not had the same devastating effect as the 1918 influenza. Ethiopia currently ranks 58^th worldwide and 4^th in Africa with over 100,000 cases reported and 1,620 deaths. There has been a significant increase over the past 8 months since the first cases in March, with Ethiopia moving up in terms of numbers, proportions and rank. However, this is in part related to increased testing capacity with over 1.5 million tests carried out so far (1,585,559), and to the  comparative the large population size estimated at 115 million.  

More significantly the cases per million are still less than one thousand (904), deaths only 14 per million, and tests are only 13,663 per million. Nonetheless, it is also pertinent to note that according to the Ethiopian Public Health Institute there have been cases recorded in every single district (woreda) of which there are more than 770 in Ethiopia, with several thousand cases in almost all the regions and roughly similar proportions, suggesting that COVID is very widespread, despite still limited evidence through testing.  It is also noteworthy that the proportion of deaths (so far) is comparatively low, which may be in part, as with many other African countries, due to a combination of a youthful population, with other environmental, economic, social, and medical factors which remain poorly understood. Moreover, there is a high proportion of asymptomatic and mild cases.

There has not been a lockdown imposed in Ethiopia a State of Emergency was declared. Though this was lifted after 5 months there remain stringent regulations about wearing masks in public, not shaking hands, washing hands before entering buildings, with potential sanctions for non compliance. However, recognizing the serious risks to livelihoods and the economy, the government relaxed some of the previously imposed measures, removing the restrictions on transport and beginning the gradual re-opening of educational institutions in an attempt to return to business as usual with proper precautions.

There has been relatively good compliance regarding wearing masks at least in urban areas, though social distance in practice is often not possible. However, the low rates of death and high asymptomatic cases so far seems to be leading to risky behaviour, especially during holidays, celebrations, weddings, mournings, political unrest, and no doubt with the current war.

Nonetheless, the proportion of positive cases reported daily is seldom above 10 percent and the death rate and critical cases so far are comparatively low. However, the likelihood of a second wave should certainly not be discounted, and, if this did happen, it is widely held that there is a high probability of the health services becoming rapidly overwhelmed.  Whereas COVID cases until recently seemed mere figures, these days most people you speak to in the capital know several people who have had the virus. However, the high proportions of asymptomatic cases, and the low numbers of severe and fatal cases seems to be fueling complacency.

In terms of young people’s behavior, the Young Lives survey carried out in five regions suggests that most people are observing basic COVID-19 prevention measures, such as washing hands, avoiding physical greetings and wearing a face mask outside. However, worryingly there is less compliance with avoiding group meetings and maintaining social distancing. Moreover, many are adopting unproven measures believed to improve the immune system, with 40 percent of respondents consuming ginger, hot pepper, lemon or garlic.

However, beyond the medical risks, it is important to stress that the economic and social impacts of COVID have no doubt been worse among the poor and more marginalized. Effects have been especially severe for those relying on informal work, wage labour and factory work, as well as income generation which has been detrimentally affected by the economic slow down.  COVID effects have also increased unemployment and exacerbated inequalities.

COVID affecting livelihoods, increasing women’s burdens, reinforcing inequalities in education, and affecting mental health

The Young Lives Survey carried out between August and October 2020 reached 2,439 of the Young Lives longitudinal sample. The survey shows that social and economic consequences of the pandemic have overshadowed health concerns for Young Lives households. Only 1 percent of respondents have tested positive to date, with a high proportion of asymptomatic and mild cases. However, a significant number of households have experienced economic shocks such as loss of income (50 percent) and increases in expenses (70 percent), including higher prices of food and farming supplies in rural areas, exacerbated by increasing inflation. However, one positive sign in economic terms is that since the easing of COVID-19 restrictions, there appears to have been some recovery of job losses, particularly in rural areas and for the Younger Cohort.

However, a shift towards agriculture from other sectors (from 35 percent to 46 percent) and an increase in self-employment (from 57 percent to 63 percent) suggests young people are going back to the family farm as a form of self-insurance.

In social terms, the gender implications are worrying. Young women have continued to bear the brunt of increased household and caring responsibilities at home, with 70 percent spending more time on domestic work (only 26 percent for young men), and almost 50 percent spending more time on childcare (19 percent for young men).

Regarding education, COVID has reinforced inequalities.  Twenty-one percent of 19 year olds had still not been able to enroll for the 2020/21 academic year, less than 5% of students had been able to access on-line learning (0% of students living in rural households). The digital divide disadvantages students with no or limited internet facilities, mostly living in rural areas, in the poorest households and whose parents are less educated.

Despite education being interrupted for the vast majority of respondents, most are hoping to return to the classroom. About 78 percent of the Younger Cohort who were still enrolled in education, or were enrolled at some point in 2020, were attending or planning to attend classes in the near future, while 21 percent were registered and were waiting for classes to resume. Only 1 percent have decided not to enroll.

Despite evidence of resilience in employment and education, Young Lives longitudinal data demonstrates a significant decrease in young people’s sense of well-being, particularly for the Younger Cohort aged 19 now, compared to similar measurements of well-being for the Older Cohort when they were aged 19. Around 1 in 5 of the respondents reported symptoms that would indicate at least mild anxiety, and similar proportions for depression.

Finally, it is impossible to overlook that other hazards and shocks have eclipsed COVID and resulted in more serious livelihood and survival concerns, including the floods in September leading to 300,000 displaced, the locust swarms at the current harvest time, and especially the current war in Tigray that are likely to result in serious food insecurity and potentially long-lasting detrimental political, economic and social effects.

Main Image: Boy selling mask/ Mulugeta Gebrekidan

This article is published under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International licence. Please cite Ethiopia Observer prominently and link clearly to the original article if you republish. If you have any queries, please contact us at ethiopiaobserver@protonmail.com. Check individual images for licensing details.