The Internal Ethiopian Armed Conflict, An Indestructible Ethiopia and the “Republic of Greater Tigray”
The dysfunctionality of ethnic federalism in Ethiopia over the last three decades and its utter failure has been immensely disappointing. Yet, some still defend this disastrous ideology usually for the wrong reasons. Identity politics in Ethiopia has turned citizens against each other, divided by religion and ethnic belongingness as the country continues to witness mayhems including ethnic clashes, targeted and ethnic-based killing of innocent citizens as well as the destruction of private property belonging to those defined as “others.” Now, the country is at the edge of a civil war.
During the first week of November 2020, the federal government of Ethiopia and the government of the Northern Ethiopian State of Tigray started exchanging fires involving shooting rockets and airstrikes. Many fear that the conflict which is reportedly initiated by the Tigray Peoples Liberation Front (TPLF) when it allegedly attacked a federal military camping house, might escalate into a full-blown civil war. Some insinuate that this path to an inescapably tragic end was begun by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed who has just received the Nobel Peace Prize a little less than a year ago. Despite the call for de-escalation, including by the UN Secretary-General, António Guterres, no peaceful negotiation has been pursued by either side. If the situation is not brought under control, commentators rightly fear that it could cost lives, destabilize the country, and the entire Horn of Africa.
The Prime Minister stated, “Our operation aims to end the impunity that has prevailed for far too long and hold accountable individuals and groups under the laws of the land.” He has reasserted that the military operation will continue until the law is upheld in the region and the perpetrators are brought to justice.
It is difficult to write about this lose-lose horror story without getting emotional. As an Ethiopian from South Omo Zone, where more than Sixteen different ethnic groups live together in peace and harmony and having a friendly relationship with Ethiopians from different ethnic backgrounds including ethnic Amhara and Tigre, Wolita and many others, it is heartbreaking to witness the rest of Ethiopia consumed by division and hate. But how did we get here, we should we go from here? And what is at stake?
The TPLF’s Rejection of Political and Democratic Reform
Since Abiy Ahmed came to power in April 2018, he has implemented sweeping reform and has recorded remarkable achievements. He has concluded a historic peace deal with Eritrea ending more than a decade’s long suspension of diplomatic and commercial ties between the two countries. He invited political parties and leaders marginalized and suppressed, even banned by the TPFL, to participate in the ongoing democratic transition. With significantly improved conditions for the exercise of civil and political rights including freedom of the press, the release of journalists and political prisoners from jail, Abiy Ahmed’s reform measures were overwhelmingly positive and at times difficult to keep pace with.
The radical departure from the modus operandi of the TPLF, which for three decades ruled the country by iron-fist constituted a repudiation of the TPLF’s legacy. It triggered an internal division within the Ethiopian People’s Democratic Revolutionary Party (EPRDF) which consisted of several ethnic-based political parties including the TPLF. During Abiy Ahmed’s fast-paced reform, the TPLF for the first time in its history lost control over how Ethiopia is run.
TPLF’s Rejection of a National Political Party
The TPLF sustained a significant blow by late 2019 when under the leadership of Abiy Ahmed, three of the four political parties forming the EPRDF decided to merge into a single national political party—the Prosperity Party(PP). The new political party adopted a fundamentally different vision and ideology compared to its predecessor.
Although purporting to be a political party of the Ethiopian people with national political programmes, the EPRDF was dominated by and served the interest of the TPLF which pulled the strings when it comes to major political and economic decisions. The other ethnic-based political parties were exploited to legitimize the TPLF at a national level. The creation of the Prosperity Party formally ended the domination of TPLF. Awol Kasim Allo asserts that “the PP is not going to be the direct representative of any particular ethnic group. Instead, it will try to be an all-encompassing national party that speaks for the entire Ethiopian people.” This is antithetical to three decades’ old idea of ethnic federalism that the TPLF has crafted to govern the country. The TPLF rejected the PP as unlawful and illegitimate by maintaining its status as a separate political party.
The Postponement of the Election due to Covid-19
When the COVID-19 pandemic hit Ethiopia, the Federal government decided to indefinitely postpone the parliamentary election, which the TPLF deemed as a pretext by the PM to prolong his term of office. The Ethiopian parliament voted to postpone the parliamentary election until it is declared safe to vote by the country’s health authority. Ethiopia is not the only country that has prolonged an election due to the covide19 pandemic. Several African countries have postponed national elections indefinitely while some western countries including Canada and Germany have postponed local and municipal elections.
Taking this as an assault on the federal constitution, the TPLF held its own regional parliamentary election on September 9, 2020 wining all the allocated total number of seats for the regional constituencies. Both the Ethiopian House of Federation(the upper house of the parliament) and the PM rejected this election as illegitimate. Tensions have been increasing since the election with various contentious discussions and decisions being made by both sides ultimately leading to an armed conflict during the first week of November.
What lies Behind the TPLF’s Move?
For the TPLF, a reformist Oromo PM, a loss of power grip that it had for three decades, the formation of a new dominant political party as well as charges of corruption against its officials became a political nightmare too overwhelming to handle. It had to endure not only its legacy being gradually wiped out but also watch power slip out of its hand quickly. While the immediate cause of the conflict is the alleged attack against the federal military camp in the Tigray region, it is apparent that the cumulative effect of the above factors pushed the two governments to the conflict that is unfolding now. The TPLF leaders justify the confrontation by the necessity to defend the rights of the Tigray people. This remains to be a contentious claim as the Tigray people by all measures are not less beneficiaries of the current political and economic system of the country. Certainly, it is questionable whether a qualifying oppression that pushed the region to resort to an armed conflict has been made by the federal government.
While it was hoped that the two governments would de-escalate the situation, the president of the Tigray region, Debretsion Gebremichael reaffirmed the region’s ability to defend itself from war waged by enemies, unambiguously suggesting that the TPLF is determined to assert its power, by all means, necessary, as is the federal government. In a time when Ethiopia is confronting socio-economic and political challenges from multiple fronts, including the dispute with Egypt over the Nile River, the TPLF’s armed attack against the federal government sends a clear message that the TPLF does not mind destabilizing Ethiopia and possibly geting Tigray region secede from Ethiopia. This does not appear to be a temporary bargaining ploy intended to pressure the federal government into making concessions.
What is the Role of the Republic of Greater Tigray?
Ever since the inception of the EPRDF in 1991, there has been a narrative that the Tigray Regional State disproportionately benefits from the distribution of developmental infrastructure. The claim, which is frequently dismissed as a conspiracy theory, holds that the Tigray region would declare its independence from Ethiopia after it expands its border through the annexation of territories from various parts of Northern Ethiopia and massive accumulation of wealth. The narrative originated from the manifesto of the TPLF published in 1976 which lays out a two-stage process for the region’s ultimate secession from Ethiopia as “the Republic of Greater Tigray.” In a peer-reviewed article published in 2004 titled “Abusing Self Determination and Democracy: How the TPLF Is Looting Ethiopia”, McCracken provides strong circumstantial evidence of what he calls the hidden agenda of the TPLF to achieve the “Republic of Greater Tigray.” Nearly two decades later, it is possible to argue that the evidence is written on the wall and this attack against the federal government, premature as it may be, is the beginning of the Republic, in the minds of TPLF leaders, although the apparent impossibility of achieving it could be forcing the TPLF leaders to step back and call for negotiation.
Tigray people are Ethiopian people. This unfortunate conflict incited by a few stubborn and deranged leaders should not affect the Tigray people. Nevertheless, the federal government should not stand and watch a regional state openly declare war against the federal state and potentially prepare itself for an unconstitutional declaration of independence. A peaceful solution is still possible regardless of the Ethiopian Parliament’s decision to dissolve the government of TPLF.
Ethiopia as we know it is facing an existential threat. Foreign actors are on the alert to capitalize on its internal political instability to weaken the country’s standing in regional and global arenas. The government needs to restore constitutional order and rule of law through strength and decisive action while remaining mindful of the fact that potential compromises with TPLF leaders should be utilized for the good of the Ethiopian people and our Tigrayan brothers and sisters.
Pandits, politicians, and citizens in Ethiopia might believe that the TPLF and the Tigray people are separate entities and the Ethiopian government should continue to conduct its military operation until the offending TPLF leaders are brought to justice. However, this partially valid assertion is not based on the reality of civil wars. In many countries that suffered from civil war, there is significant amount of support for the leaders that objectively seem to be on the wrong side of history. To argue that TPLF leaders could be surgically identified, targeted, captured and brought to justice could lead to an unmitigated disaster.
The TPLF leaders are elected representatives in the Tigray region. They are the best the majority of the Tigray people know. The Tigray youth may not necessarily have a similar way of looking at the conflict as the Ethiopian youth. In view of that, the PM should keep an open mind about the possibility of compromises because the alternative path where the Tigray youth continue to support their leaders should not be entirely excluded. The key target at this point should be sending a clear message that any potential plan to assert independence should be carried out following the constitutionally prescribed procedure and to restore peace and stability than to seek a vendetta and instant gratification for that will not provide a long-term solution.
A Path to an Indestructible Ethiopia
The current conflict between the federal government and TPLF is a symptom of a larger problem. Ethiopia has been at the risk of civil war for the past several years partly due to the ethnic federalism and tensions that the TPLF has sown in the country through the 1995 constitution. The TPLF has been capitalizing on the system to divide and rule the Ethiopian people. Ethnic-based violence has been rampant in the country specially in Oromia Region where radical groups target Non-Oromo Ethiopians—killing them, robbing them, and vandalizing their business, property, and homes. The TPLF has exploited this divisive ideology to consolidate its power, presenting itself as the only savior of the country from TPLF-devised problems. Abiy Ahmed’s attempt to de-emphasize ethnic-centered politics among others, through re-organizing the ruling party along non-ethnic lines, is taken by the TPLF as an assault on its legacy. TPLF is not the first and last radical political group that will seize the opportunity to divide Ethiopia, as other radical ethno-nationalists including the Oromo Liberation Army that slaughtered over 50 civilians in November of 2020, are equally captivated by this ideology. Unfortunately, a non-negligible segment of Ethiopian intelligentsia continues to defend this tested and failed ideology. Ethiopia needs a revolutionary political change to completely eradicate the recurring threat to its existence stemming from this profoundly toxic ideology.
The Ethiopian ethnic federalism was meant to enhance unity through recognizing diversity and rectifying the historical injustices and inequalities suffered by various ethnicities. To that end, article 39 of the federal constitution recognizes the rights of nations, nationalities, and peoples(ethnicities) to self-determination including up to secession. Over the past three decades, the country has seen the deleterious effect this principle has on national unity. Ethnic federalism did not have the desired positive effect and it will never have. On the contrary, it has given radical ethno-nationalists the tool to push for divisive short-term political gains. If Ethiopians wish the nation that defeated a Western colonial power to continue to exist, the only way forward is to reform the country’s constitution by abolishing the right to secession and to create a perpetual and indestructible Union.
Asress Adimi Gikay (PhD) is Lecturer in AI, Disruptive Innovation and Law at Brunel University London. https://twitter.com/RealAsressGikay
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