• Activists welcome historic visit but demand changes to one-party system
• President Isaias has used conflict with Ethiopia to justify authoritarianism
• Unclear what normalisation with Ethiopia means for Eritrean citizens’ rights

Eritrea’s long-time President Isaias Afewerki is visiting Ethiopia, a country that he has not set foot in since the start of their vicious two-year war in 1998 that led to a long militarized freeze in relations.

The three-day visit ending today came days after a declaration was made to end conflict. The governments have agreed to resume trade, diplomatic relations, and flights between two states that were one country until Eritreans voted for secession in 1993

The President basked in a hero’s welcome at Bole International Airport on Saturday morning where Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed greeted him with a trademark hug. A brass band performed and thousands of people, many waving Eritrean and Ethiopian flags, swept into the streets to mark the historic day.

Former rebel leader and liberation hero Isaias, who has refused to enact Eritrea’s 1997 constitution because of the standoff with Ethiopia, appealed to their ties and shared history. “We are one people that have been estranged for many years. Whoever forgets that doesn’t understand the situation. We can now overcome past enmity and move in a new direction,” he said.

While many citizens are in favour of the rapprochement, some of that overflowing enthusiasm is not shared by exiled Eritreans who criticize their autocratic President for running a one-party authoritarian state.

U.S.-based Eritrean journalist and Executive Director of PEN Eritrea in Exile Abraham T Zere says the events means a lot for the Eritrean people who have been hold hostage for almost 20 years with the sole excuse of the threat from Ethiopia. “Basically we are hoping the country will resume life. Eritreans are only hoping things will dramatically improve with rapprochement,” he said.

The decision to make a renewed push for peace was announced by Ethiopia’s four-party ruling coalition in early June and then rapidly progressed by Prime Minister’s Abiy’s proactive, assertive diplomacy.

Abraham says that all the indications are that things cannot continue the way they have been in Eritrea after this peace deal. “Whatever excuse Isaias tries to find, I doubt he will continue his rule unabashed now. He will be forced to make changes. How he will exit himself safely from the chaos he has created is another issue and only time can tell,” he said.

Isaias has imprisoned rivals and critics, banned the media and enforced indefinite national service. Those measures and accompanying economic woes have led to hundreds of thousands fleeing the country of less than six million people. He used the conflict with Ethiopia to justify his approach, but it is not clear yet what the removal of that justification will mean for conditions inside Eritrea.

Why now?

Amanuel Ghirmay of Radio Erena, a Paris-based satellite radio station said this is a significant occasion, but is not upbeat because there is no sign of a change in Eritrea. “Abiy has taken steps to improve situation in his country but Isaias has done nothing of that sort. He has not shown any readiness to improve the human rights condition and democratic rights. He has not made any promise to end political repression or to stop the never-ending national service. Eritrea remains a one-man leadership with no election and parliamentary system,” he said.

Amanuel, who joined Radio Erena in 2010 after gaining asylum in France, leaving his journalism career in his homeland, says Isaias has not consulted Eritreans on how and why he came to this policy now, two decades after people have paid such a heavy price. “This has not been people-to-people. The Eritrean people have never been at war with Ethiopian people. I myself when I fled to Ethiopia, I was welcomed there. This was a political game between the officials. Meles has been begging him for years. Why now?”

Temesghen Debesai is a freelance journalist based in London, who fled Eritrea in 2006, giving up his state broadcasting television career. He also questions if Eritrea can offer its citizens basic human rights, freedoms and opportunities. “Peace is important. No one questions that. We are all excited about this development. People in both countries are happy to be able to speak to each other via telephone after many years interruption,” he said speaking to the Australian-based broadcaster SBS Tigrinya.

However, Temesghen says his excitement is tempered by his knowledge of the unpredictability of Isaias’ administration. “Does he have the political will to change? Will he allow Eritrean people to travel freely to Ethiopia and do commerce? How will this development benefit the Eritrean people who are suffering from lack of water and electricity disruptions?” he asks.

“How will this development benefit the Eritrean people who are suffering from lack of water and electricity disruptions?”

The nations have technically been at war even after active conflict ended with a 2000 agreement in Algiers and both have hosted rebels groups fighting against the other. An international border commission ruled in 2002 that the disputed town of Badme, a centre of the conflict, was Eritrean. But Addis Ababa refused to implement the ruling without further negotiations, which Asmara refused.

The Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front has been lukewarm about Abiy’s approach, but has gradually and cautiously welcomed developments. Ethiopia is expected to cede the town of Badme to Eritrea, but there may be negotiations over settlements that would be otherwise split by demarcation, and there may some negotiation over the border to accommodate communities that consider themselves Ethiopian or Eritrean.

The Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the United Arab Emirates Armed Forces Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan reportedly played a key peace-making role in the recent thaw. As part of the Saudi-led coalition, UAE uses a base near the Eritrean port of Assab to launch raids into Yemen in its war against the Houthi movement and recently lent Ethiopia $1 billion in emergency financial support to ease a foreign-exchange crisis.

(Main photo: President Isaias Afwerki is welcomed by Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed upon arriving at the Bole international airport on July 14. Michael Tewelde)

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(Correction: Attribution has been added to Temesghen Debesai’s comments.)