Although the peace offering to Eritrea was a collective decision, there are indications of incoherence within Ethiopia’s ruling coalition. Notably, a crucial player, the Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front, does not seem to be fully on board.

Following the surprise announcement of the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front’s readiness to fully implement the Algiers Agreement, there has also been an unusually long silence from the Eritrean regime. Adding to the uncertainty that created, the apparently divided TPLF effectively reiterated a call for dialogue, the same position that has led to 16 years of deadlock.

The human and material cost the two countries paid over the two decades is difficult to fathom. As the Moroccan poet, Abdellatif Laâbi wrote in “In Praise of Defeat”: “Death has grown weary/Even peace is ugly.”

Already, once vibrant border towns have been reduced to shells. It is never too late to reconcile and try and rebuild. The latest peace gesture is potentially the saving grace for the people of the two countries and, in theory, their embattled governments.

At the other end of the spectrum, the peace offer poses a challenge for Eritrea’s ruling People’s Front for Democracy and Justice as well as their counterparts in Tigray. In many ways both have built their base in opposition to each other and peace would weaken their fear-driven rule.

After the 2002 decision to award contested territories to Eritrea and others to Ethiopia, resolution has been delayed mainly because of Ethiopia’s lack of readiness. This has boosted PFDJ leader Isaias Afewerki’s unchallenged rule. Settling the impasse would immediately alter the status quo, so the disincentives for the autocrat are obvious.

Otherwise, those familiar with Eritrean politics do not see an imminent challenge to Isaias, so he is under little pressure from cabinet colleagues or military commanders to accept the offer. Over the years, he has faced down the slightest dissent making silence and a lack of collaboration the primary means of defiance by citizens and political leaders.

However, the Eritrean populace—coerced into accepting their subjugation as a necessary evil stemming from the Ethiopian threat—is becoming less and less willing to heed the same tired excuses. As the regime has crafted its survival narrative based on Ethiopia’s hesitation to make peace, Eritreans are hearing news they have long waited for.

Mounting pressures

On the Ethiopian side, the TPLF is facing mounting pressures. Thanks to the border stalemate, they were also not short of excuses to sustain their control. The war has benefited elites on both sides who were able to create their own fiefdoms. The recent move creates dynamics which some might not be prepared to face. Looking at the problem from a different angle, as the TPLF is losing its grip on power, an uncooperative approach to the Eritrea problem might be a way to sabotage Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s initiative.

There has been surge of oppositions from the local communities in Tigray, which is partly caused by TPLF-led policies that resettled some villages after the verdict of the Boundary Commission in places that were awarded to Eritrea. Ambassador Andebrhan W. Giorgis, who Eritrean Commissioner for the United Nations Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) but is now in exile, wrote: “After the EEBC’s delimitation decision of 13 April 2002, the government of the regional state of Tigray brought people from different parts of Tigray and started settling them in these now occupied Eritrean territories of ‘Badme and its environs’ as of July 2002. The same TPLF-dominated Ethiopian government defied the EEBC: Order of the Commission to dismantle and halt illegal settlements.”

And now, once hushed voices such as the demands of Irob community from Ethiopia and Tserona residents from Eritrea have been heard. Both sides are calling for reconsideration and dialogue with local communities rather than a top-down approach to delineating the border.  Sooner or later, the frontier will be marked and relations between brotherly neighbors, who are desperate for co-existence, will be reinstated.

Apart from those who have been resettled by TPLF policies and now feel betrayed, military commanders from both sides are expected to be displeased with moves towards normalization, as a full return to civilian rule means losing benefits and power. But we expect governments to deal with a few malcontents for the bigger cause of lasting peace.

Yet as that peace is the biggest threat to Isaias’ reclusive rule, which has led Eritreans to despair, he seems to have acquired a new TPLF ally. The struggles of Isaias and TPLF after their long stay at the top could still drag out the peace process as they try to buy time to prolong their life-spans.  Both sides seem to realize that their survival depends on a continued state of stalemate. If Abiy’s government finally withdraws troops, Asmara’s nervous response suggests that would pull the rug out from under the regime.

With spoilers still lurking on both sides of this tragic border, it is high time for the population of both countries, as well as public figures from all sides, to maintain the momentum and end two-decades of misery. The two countries—both citizens and governments—cannot afford to miss out on this reconciliatory moment.

 (Main image: Eritrean refugees in Adi Harush camp. Photo: Reuters.)