Abiy Ahmed’s swearing-in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia is a cause for celebration-albeit of the cautious kind.
Despite optimism, there are legitimate concerns that the youthful leader might not possess the assertiveness and clout to pull his party and country together. His predecessor, Hailemariam Desalegn often seemed powerless and indecisive, particularly in dealing with patronage network and the wholesale corruption of political life by the nouveau rich while millions of ordinary people-trying to make ends meet in low wage.
However, favourable public opinion plays in the new Prime Minister’s favour, boosting his authority and status, and giving him the chance to be a transformative leader.
The challenges and tasks are numerous. Pervasive graft and maladministration are rife and officials and military generals are abusing the state machinery for personal, their cronies’ enrichment. A culture of corruption and bribery, a rarity three or four decades ago, is virtually destroying the country’s productive base. Mega projects are in jeopardy and facing bankruptcy, such as the ambitious plan to construct a dozen of sugar factories. The project to build a fertilizer plant, despite huge budget, is lagging behind its schedule and incurring bigger costs than intended.
When Hailemariam was sworn-on seven years ago, he vowed to continue Meles Zenawi’s legacy without any change. Unsurprisingly, his rule was characterized by having too many advisors, weak leadership and it resulted in disappointments. Abiy should ensure not repeat those mistakes. He must make bold steps and take the decisions he believes necessary as he develops the confidence to ignore his powerful detractors.
Abiy needs to take an intiaitve and determination to satisfy demand for change. The effort to make country democratic and just, free from ruthless repression of ideological adversaries, is not going to be easy. The new kid on the bloke will surely face resistance from the stalwarts of his own party, security and business establishment who fear progressive change will bring an end to their privileges. There will be nagging voices reminding him that he was handpicked to continue the status quo and he can only read the party’s tired script. That is not true, but there are those who will try to make him think it is. However, the recent indications are the country is ripe for change in style and even a review of policy objectives and priorities. This was all the more so given that Ethiopia was a nation still deeply in need of a thoroughgoing transformation after so many years of skewed development. Abiy has to take the opportunity to carve his way and avoid becoming a pawn of the army.
A lesson from Spain’s experience might be in order. When Juan Carlos took the throne on the death of General Francisco Franco, the dictator who ruled for 36 years, it was said that he was selected to extend authoritarian rule. However, the king soon ignored Franco’s supporters and ushered in a new system of parliamentary monarchy. Juan Carlos was credited with playing a central role in consolidating Spain’s return to democracy and he managed to make himself an engine of change in Spanish society. May be Abiy should read his biography.
But that success, albeit in another context and on another continent, suggests the new Prime Minister should be prepared to fight, too. Abiy has a real opportunity to lead assertively and push forward an agenda of vital reforms. He is relatively untainted by the failures of the past and he has a unique opportunity to push democratic reforms and national reconciliation
There will thorny issues for the new head of state and for the party. The state’s inclination to retain too many features of state control and management of the economy even in the face of continued inflation and chronic commodity shortages. Misconceptions about the role of ethnicity in politics, government and society, and the politicized judiciary, the undemocratic and nondependent media culture. These would all be significant moves, and they will require determination and resolve to be pushed through. A fearless leader will be required to kick-start the process of renewal the country needs. Abiy has no choice but to do so. The fate of millions rests upon it.